Last week 1-4

Disclaimer: I am not an expert. I’m just a fan who likes to watch football and bet on the games. No one is actually good at this. Bet responsibly.

Lions +7

So far, the story of this season for the Detroit Lions has been offense and injuries. Losing De’andre Swift and Amon-Ra St. Brown hurt this team’s production and chances to win games. Both are slated to return which largely improves the value of the Lions.

Dak Prescott is also set to return as the starter for the Cowboys on Sunday. I don’t think this will change the look of the Cowboys as much as everyone thinks. I think 7 points is too many to give Detroit’s offense against a Cowboys team who has struggled to score and a QB’s first game back after injury.

Jaguars -3

The Giants have had a dream start to their 2022-2023 season. Coming into week seven 5-1 with wins against the Ravens and Packers, the Giants have exceeded all expectations. There are no pictures on the scorecard, but if there were there are some ugly pictures in the Giant’s record. The Ravens had a nightmare meltdown last week to give the Giants an improbable win. Their other wins are against a Packers team where the QB hates everyone, a Bears team who can’t score, and the Panthers whose QB has the lowest QBR in the league. Teams struggle to travel down to Jacksonville and win, and I think the Giants struggle here.

Broncos +1.5

The Broncos have looked no less than absolutely pathetic in every game they have played this season. Outside of the first quarter last week against the Chargers it has been a total nightmare. With that being said, I would not be a true Broncos fan if I didn’t take them in this situation. The Broncos should be nowhere near favorites or one-point underdogs to anyone above .500. Something is up with this one.

Russell Wilson was ruled out for this game with a Hamstring Injury. I don’t hate the idea of a change-up in the offense with Brett Rypien playing in this game. I don’t think the Jets have a plan for Rypien and while he isn’t Peyton Manning he is good enough to make the necessary plays to make this a game.

Seattle +5

The Chargers are one of the strongest teams in the NFL to me. All I have heard the past two years is how good the Chargers are and how they will win all these games and make a run in the playoffs. Each week I watch this team and they just don’t look like the elite team that we were all told they were. They don’t dominate teams like they should and I don’t expect them to here. Sofi was empty for primetime on Monday so I don’t think the home field will play much of a role. Additionally, Geno Smith lives to silence critics and that is all he has done this season. Five points feel like too many for him,

49ers +1.5

It is a scary spot to jump in front of the Chiefs after a loss but I will be doing that this weekend. The 49ers are finally returning home to a comfortable environment after a long road trip. Of losses, the 49ers have played their best games this season, and there is reason to believe that happens here.

Sometimes there are situations where it doesn’t make a lot of sense but you trust the basics. Over 70% of the bets are on Kansas City but the line has moved down from 3 to 1. It doesn’t make a lot of sense in-game where the Chiefs are viewed as far superior. Just gonna have to trust the gut on this one and pray it works.