Last week 3-2
In this week’s picks, I’m fading myself and contradicting blogs from earlier this week. Following a positive Sunday last week, here’s to hopefully more of the same.
Packers ML + Under 41
This line is already moving like crazy. Just earlier this week the line was at +2 now it’s all the way to a pick’em. The Bucs, while 2-0, have struggled on offense both weeks and are likely overvalued. I’m not a huge conspiracy theorist, but it sure did feel like the refs were bailing out Tampa down the stretch of last week’s game. That win didn’t feel earned. You are not fooling me Mr. Goodell. I don’t think this will happen two weeks in a row.
Additionally, this game feels low scoring with both teams’ strengths being defense and missing key players on offense such as Sammy Watkins and Mike Evans. 41 feels very low for a Rodgers vs Brady matchup, but in this case, it’s appropriate.
Texans +3
I might be the only person outside of Houston that believes this, but I think there is a chance that the Texans are better than everyone thinks. It’s hard to tell this early in the season, but until they prove that they are bad again I don’t see a reason to not pick them here. They have kept the past two games competitive, covering both times. Against a Bears team who hasn’t proved much yet this season, I think the Texans are the right side in this one.
Lions +6
The Lions are coming off a huge win and now will be going on the road to a conference opponent. Usually, this is a situation where you would need to fade them, but there’s something about this Lions team where I can’t compel myself to do that. The Lions always have a bunch of fights in them and they seem to backdoor every bet that gives them too many points. Six points is just way too many to give Detroit. If this one hits it will probably be a sweat until the last minute of the game.
Miami +5.5
Did I just write a blog on why the Bills feel unstoppable? Yes. Am I now betting against them not even a week after posting it? Also yes. I, just like everyone else, am riding so high on the Bills. Everyone has already declared them champions, and now they have to take a long flight down to Miami on a short week to play a solid team. This is a tough spot for them. If anyone can find holes in the Bills’ defense it’s the Waddle and Hill combo. This game feels like it can rely on Tua being consistent and the Dolphin’s defense competing with the Bills’ offense. If the Dolphins can do that they can make this game interesting.
Commanders +6.5
Since the Eagle’s statement victory on Monday, everyone seems to be riding super high on them. In a similar situation to the Bills, it’s only week two yet everyone is already crowning them.
The Eagles are a good team, but everyone’s a little too high on them right now and this is a tough spot for them. On a short week, they have to go on the road to a conference opponent who is going to be extra hungry after a loss. This is way too many points to give the Commanders in this situation.
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